Research for better coastal forecasting.

Offshore wave spectra and coastal water levels

ShoreSense’s environmental forecasting is informed by research into how offshore wave-energy patterns relate to coastal water-level changes.

THE QUESTION

Can the distribution of wave energy tell us more than wave height alone?

Offshore spectra → coastal water levels

Bulk wave measurements leave part of the story behind.

Wave height and peak period summarize an offshore sea state in two familiar numbers. They do not preserve how energy is distributed across the full spectrum.

The study tests whether a low-frequency-weighted spectral index carries information that transfers more effectively from Pacific Northwest development sites to a separate California evaluation network.

49,786observations used to fit the models across five Pacific Northwest coastal pairs

24,878external observations across six California coastal pairs

11.7%reduction in normalized RMSE against the conventional height-period comparator for the preliminary one-minute target

The index gives more weight to lower-frequency energy.

Two sea states can have similar wave height and peak period while distributing energy very differently. Negative spectral moments preserve more of the lower-frequency structure that bulk measurements omit.

X_s= √m_-4

The resulting value is used as a compact offshore descriptor. It becomes one environmental input within ShoreSense, alongside visual observations, tides, weather, local geometry, and other site data.

A model developed in one region was tested in another.

Five Pacific Northwest buoy-gauge pairs supplied the development observations. The fixed relationships were then evaluated at six California pairs spanning Arena Cove to San Diego.

California outcomes did not determine the spectral moment or model coefficients. The evaluation asked whether the ordering would persist across new coastal settings.

Model development

Pacific Northwest

Five buoy-gauge pairs

External evaluation

California

Arena Cove · Point Reyes · Port San Luis · Santa Barbara · Santa Monica · San Diego

The spectral model improved the primary comparison at all six California sites.

The strongest pooled result used preliminary one-minute water levels. The verified six-minute product preserved the pooled ordering with a smaller improvement.

Preliminary 1-minuteVerified 6-minute

Arena Cove

15.6%

6.6%

Point Reyes

17.4%

7.8%

Port San Luis

15.8%

Santa Barbara

7.2%

5.2%

Santa Monica

13.8%

8.3%

San Diego

4.5%

0.3%

11.7%

lower normalized RMSE

for the preliminary one-minute target against the prespecified height-period comparator across the 24,878-observation California evaluation.

Research informs the environmental model.

The study contributes a geographically tested environmental input. ShoreSense combines that spectral information with camera observations, tides, weather, local geometry, human movement, and response coverage.

Together, these inputs help the system interpret changing shoreline conditions and build a more complete picture of coastal risk.

See how the research supports the system.

Explore the sensing hardware, edge models, littoral digital twin, and response-coordination architecture.

Explore the system